Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. I quit voting once out of the union.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. A lot of people think things are. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Your email address will not be published. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. This claim is basically absurd. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Port Clinton, Ohio. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. They need to take care of the older people here. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. He cares about the American people.. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. That is a very good thing to have. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. I got a life. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. By Cara Ding. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Required fields are marked *. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. The counties are also mostly small and rural. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. He says Democratic Gov. 0:00 0:00. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Were a service industry-oriented area. Farming also is huge here. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Theres too much corruption. SACRAMENTO . My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. I think we needed somebody like him.. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. And it can happen.. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. I would never vote any other way. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. People need to get a job, get out and work. I dont think you should take that away from me.. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? To accept cookies, click continue. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. But according to the. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Bremer County, Iowa Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. bellwether. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before.